# Last edited on 2014-05-10 00:23:01 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday May 10[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2739 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 441 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-09-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-09-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-09-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-09-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-09-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/09 was very bad (S = 0.0134, W = 0.028) and again way off the assumed trend (straight line defined by two previous points).  The Method then says to use a weighted least squares straight-line fit of the last three points (with very low weight for the third one) rather than the straight line of the last two points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/07, A = 2752.99, B = -6.05.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.21 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.21 today (May/09) and yesterday, and 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-05-09, 00:43 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-05-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Foiled again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2731 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2802 CNY
Error: 71 CNY (~11 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 440 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 451 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Vision is the art of seeing things invisible." -- Jonathan Swift.