# Last edited on 2014-05-08 21:48:08 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 09[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-05-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2731 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 440 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-08-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/08 was good (S = 0.0026, W = 0.870), however it was way off the assumed trend (straight line defined by two previous points).  There is no plausible trend fitting the last three points, so the least unreasonable option is the straight line defined by the last two.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/07, A = 2755, B = -12.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.20 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.21 today (May/07), but 6.16 yesterday, and 6.23, 6.18, 6.16, 6.17 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 21:51 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Punished again for being bull:

Huobi's predicted price: 2838 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2743 CNY
Error: 95 CNY (~15 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 460 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
[b]Error: 18 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."
  -- Voltaire