# Last edited on 2014-05-07 19:58:56 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 08[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-05-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2838 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 460 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-07-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/07 was good (S = 0.0029, W = 0.857).  Now that we have two data points since the last assumed break, it seems reasonable to assume a straight line trend defined by them.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/06, A = 2672, B = +83.

(Another option would be a shifted exponential trend defined by the last three points, May/05--07; but that would expose me to jeers and taunts from the audience for being overbullish.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.17 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.16 today (May/07), but 6.23 yesterday, and 6.18, 6.16, 6.17 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 21:29 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~22 hours later)

The prediction was bad, as expected from the banal extrapolation:

Huobi's predicted price: 2672 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2755 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~13 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 430 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 450 USD
[b]Error: 20 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: Extrapolating the current trend, by the end of June the date will be May 61, 2014.