# Last edited on 2014-05-06 18:28:07 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday May 07[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-05-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2672 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 430 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-06-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/05 was very good (S = 0.0011, W = 0.974).  It was signficantly above the previously assumed trend, so it seems that the trend was broken again.  With only one data point, we must use the banal "tomorrow like today" prediction.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.22 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.23 today (May/06), but 6.18 yesterday, and 6.16, 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-05-04, 21:33 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~22 hours later)

The predicition for Huobi was not that wrong, considering the swings of the day:

Huobi's predicted price: 2635 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 37 CNY (~6 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was more accurate, due to an unexpected change in the R factor:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 429 USD
[b]Error: 2 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: There is nothing notable today.