# Last edited on 2014-05-05 22:12:48 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday May 06[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2635 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 427 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-05-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-05-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-05-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-05-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-05-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/05 was fairly good (S = 0.0041, W = 0.716).  It was below but fairly close to the previously assumed trend, so it seems most reasonable to stick with it.   Fitting again a straight line to the last four data points, by weighted least squares, gives A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2746.70, B = -27.96.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.17 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.18 today (May/05), 6.16 yesterday, and 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-04, 23:26 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-05-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

The Method was just a tad too bullish:

Huobi's predicted price: 2676 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2656 CNY
[b]Error: 20 CNY (~3.24 USD)[/b]

Bitstamp's predicted price: 434 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 430 USD
[b]Error: 3 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad." --Salvador Dalí