# Last edited on 2014-05-04 20:23:32 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday May 05[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-05-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2676 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 434 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-04-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-04-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-04-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-04-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-04-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point for today May/04 was very good (S = 0.0020, W = 0.921).  It was well off the previously assumed trend, but that trend dependend on yesterday's data point, which was very weak (W = 0.009).   Fitting a straight line to the last three points, by weighted least squares, gives A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2743.73, B = -22.49.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.16 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.16 today (May/04), 6.17 yesterday, and 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-03, 23:12 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-05-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2600 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2699 CNY
Error: 99 CNY (~16 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 438 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: This predition is entirely free, as in free beer. 
  Satisfaction guaranteed or 20% of your money back, minus our expenses.