# Last edited on 2014-05-03 20:12:32 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 04[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-05-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2600 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 427 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-03-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-03-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-03-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-03-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-03-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today (May/03) Huobi suddenly started trading heavily at 04:30 am local time (20:30 UTC).  Even though the weight of that hourly interval in the mean V[sub]h[/sub] is rather small (0.071), it resulted in a very large slumber activity ratio S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] (0.0169) and therefore a very low relevance weight W (0.003) for today's data point.

Still, with only two points since the last confirmed trend break, we must assume the straight line trend defined by them, namely A + B*(d-D0) where (d-D0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2744, B = -72.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R.  That factor was 6.17 CNY/USD today (May/03), but given today's very low weight W it seemed better to retain the value assumed yesterday, namely R = 6.09. It was 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-05-03, 00:29 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-05-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2744 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2672 CNY
Error: 72 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 451 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 433 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
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