# Last edited on 2014-05-02 21:27:48 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday May 03[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-05-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2744 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 451 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-02-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-02-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-02-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-02-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-02-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was again quite good (S = 0.0031, W = 0.826), but way off the trend of the last four points.  Obviously there was another break in the trend.  With a single data point, we can only use the banal predicition "tomorrow will be like today".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.09 CNY/USD. It was 6.08 today (May/02), and 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05, 6.09 on the previous good sample times. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-05-01, 23:30 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-05-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

Foiled again by the treacherous [s]Chinese[/s] [s]Bulgarians[/s] [s]Russians[/s] [s]Canadians[/s] aliens:

Huobi's predicted price: 2837 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2744 CNY
Error: 93 CNY (~15 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 451 USD
Error: 10 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "According to recent statistics, 93.2% of all statistics are totally made up." (unknown)