# Last edited on 2014-05-01 19:40:07 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 02[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-05-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2837 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 461 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-01-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was again quite good (S = 0.0032, W = 0.812), but still a little above the previous trend line (by 16 CNY).  The last four points Apr/28--May/01 still fit fairly well a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2913.63, B = -197.68, and Q = 0.789.  (This trend is closer to a straight line than the previous one.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD. It was 6.11 on May 1st, 6.22 on Apr/30, and 6.25 on Apr/29. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-05-01, 02:52 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was fairly good, only a bit too pessimistic:

Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2818 CNY
Error: 16 CNY (~2.60 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was further off, due to a change in the R factor:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 461 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: 
  "I hate spinach. That's good, because, if I loved spinach, I would eat it, and I hate it."
      -- Prudhomme