# Last edited on 2014-04-30 23:38:57 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 01[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2802 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 450 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-30-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-30-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-30-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-30-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-30-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was quite good (S = 0.0028, W = 0.851), but again below the previous trend line (by 67 CNY).  It is now clear that tere was a break in the trend between Apr/27 and Apr/28 (or, rather, there was no clear trend from Apr/25 to Apr/27).  The last three points Apr/28--30 are good and define a shifted decaying exponential A + B * Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2820.80, B = -105.80, and Q = 0.56522.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.22 on Apr/30 and 6.25 on Apr/29. 
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 02:26 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction was again too pessimistic because it did not detect the break in the trend:

Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2787 CNY
Error: 67 CNY (~11 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 448 USD
Error: 9 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: 
  "Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a
  mistake when you make it again."  -- F. P. Jones