# Last edited on 2014-04-29 23:06:16 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 30[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2720 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 439 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-29-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-29-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-29-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-29-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-29-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point, like yesterday's, was fairly good (S = 0.0035, W = 0.778), and not very far from the previously assumed trend line.  Again two choices for the trend seemed reasonable, the straight line determined by the last two points only, or a straight trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last five points (which would ignore yesterday's given its low weight).  I chose the latter, but multiplied the Slumber Weight W by a "remoteness" weight WF = K**(DF-d) where K = 0.8 and (DF-d) is the number of days before the last data point (Apr/29).  The fitted line was A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2813.92 and B = -18.83.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD. It was 6.25 at today's Slumber time, and 6.05, 6.09, and 6.05 for the Slumber Times at Apr/28, Apr/26, and Apr/25.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 02:44 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was rather off:

Huobi's predicted price: 2684 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2761 CNY
Error: 77 CNY (~12 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was almost exact, but only because the R factor changed:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 443 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
[b]Error: 1 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Man differs from the animal only by a little; most men throw that little away."
    -- Confucius