# Last edited on 2014-04-28 23:41:48 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 29[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-04-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2684 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 443 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-28-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-28-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-28-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-28-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-28-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The data point from yesterday (Sunday Apr/27 19:00-19:50 UTC) was one of the worst on record: Huobi had little volume during the day, but traded heavily during the night (S = 0.0343, W practically zero).  Today's data point however was fairly good (S = 0.0037, W = 0.758).  Two choices for the trend seemed reasonable, the trivial "tomorrow like today" predictor (which would give 2715 CNY), or a straight line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last four points (which would ignore yesterday's given its low weight).  I chose the latter, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2836.60 and B = -38.22.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.06 CNY/USD. It was 6.05, 6.09, and 6.05 for the last three Slumber Times, skipping yesterday's.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-26, 22:21 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Foiled again by the treacherous Chinese. But I got the right digits, only in the wrong order: :D

Huobi's predicted price: 2876 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2678 CNY
Error: 198 CNY (~33 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 471 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 440 USD
Error: 31 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money." -- W. C. Fields