# Last edited on 2014-04-26 19:02:23 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 27[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-04-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2876 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 471 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-26-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was even weaker than yesterday's (S = 0.0076 W = 0.311), but we must use it anyway to define the new straight-line trend.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/25, A = 2814 and B = +31.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.11 CNY/USD. It was 6.09 today and 6.05 yesterday; althhough those points had low weight, it seems best to use a value near them rather than the values observed before the crash (6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-26, 04:04 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

The Huobi's "same as yesterday" prediction was rather good:

Huobi's predicted price: 2814 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2845 CNY
Error: 31 CNY (~5 USD)

The Bitstamp prediction was too low, because it used the pre-crash R (6.29) instead of the post-crash one (6.05):

Bitstamp's predicted price: 447 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 467 USD
Error: 20 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Be not simply good; be good for something." -- Thoreau