# Last edited on 2014-04-26 01:02:41 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 26[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-04-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2814 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 447 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-25-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

The fairly straight price trend that held for the last six Slumber Times was obviously broken.  Today's data point was rather weak (S = 0.0062 W = 0.469), but since it is the only point we have for the new trend (if any) we must use it as the basis of the trivial prediction, "tomorrow's price will be the same as today".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.29 CNY/USD. It was 6.05 today, but the low weight W makes this value suspicious.  It was 6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the previous five Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-04-24, 22:03 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-04-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3067 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2814 CNY
Error: 253 CNY (~40 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 488 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 465 USD
Error: 23 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Anything that calls itself 'science' probably isn't."  -- John Searle