# Last edited on 2014-04-24 19:01:55 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 25[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-04-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3067 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 488 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was not bad (S = 0.0049 W = 0.614), and above the previous trend line, but not by much (by 37 CNY).  It seems still valid to use a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last six points, Apr/19--24.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3138.67 and B = -12.01.

(The older data points should have their weights reduced when fitting the trend, but the effect on the prediction would have been small.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.29 CNY/USD. It was 6.30, 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last five Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-23, 21:47 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3059 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3096 CNY
Error: 37 CNY (~6 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 487 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 491 USD
Error: 4 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "I never think of the future.  It comes soon enough."  --Albert Einstein