# Last edited on 2014-04-23 18:47:26 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 24[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-04-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3059 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 487 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-23-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-23-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-23-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-23-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-23-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was rather good, (S = 0.0039 W = 0.742), and not too much below the previous trend line (by 54 CNY).  It seems still valid to use a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last five points, Apr/19--23.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3151.11 and B = -18.42.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.28 CNY/USD. It was 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 22:35 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3112 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3058 CNY
Error: 54 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 487 USD
Error: 7 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Why should someone who knows something conceal it?" 
  -- Sumerian "proverb", from an Assyrian school exercise collection