# Last edited on 2014-04-22 19:35:46 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 23[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-04-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3112 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 494 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[ [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-22-prediction-check-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url] ]

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0016 W = 0.949) and only 29 CNY above the previous trend line.  Therefore it seems appropriate to use again a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last four points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3128.64 and B = -4.27.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.30 CNY/USD. It was 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-04-21, 23:29 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Not bad, but admittedly it was not a hard guess:

Huobi's predicted price: 3091 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3120 CNY
Error: 29 CNY (~5 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 492 USD
[b]Error: 2 USD[/b]
 
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