# Last edited on 2014-04-21 20:27:35 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 22[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3091 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 494 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-21-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-21-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-21-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-21-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-21-prediction-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was so-so, (S = 0.0051 W = 0.598) but almost exactly aligned with the last two points.  Therefore it seems best to assume a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3144.19 and B = -17.62.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.26 CNY/USD. It was 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-20, 23:02 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Another lucky break:

Huobi's predicted price: 3097 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3110 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 496 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 496 USD
[b]Error: 0 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "There is a 70% probability of tomorrow." (actual weatherman quote. 1988)