# Last edited on 2014-04-20 18:59:55 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 21[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-04-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3097 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 496 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-20-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-20-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-20-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-20-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-20-prediction-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was fair, (S = 0.0 035 W = 0.782) and, like the previous one, totally off the trend of Apr/16--18.  Whatever external causes sustained that trend must have ceased, so it is appropriate to start a new trend, the straight line defined by the last two points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3153 and B = -28.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.24 CNY/USD. It was 6.25, 6.26, 6.18, 6.21, 6.23 at the last five Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-19, 23:37 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

Punished for my stubborness:

Huobi's predicted price: 2788 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3125 CNY
Error: 337 CNY (~54 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 500 USD
Error: 50 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: 
  "On two occasions I have been asked, 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you 
  put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?'"