# Last edited on 2014-04-19 20:33:04 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 20[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-04-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2788 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 450 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-19-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-19-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-19-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-19-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-19-prediction-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was very weak, (S = 0.0114, W = 0.075) and totally off the current trendline.  External reasons would indicate a break and another trendline, but the Method would rather ignore today's point as a freak and persist in the previous straight line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the points of Apr/16--18; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3187.6 and B = -100.0.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.19 CNY/USD. It was 6.26 at today's Slumber Point, but 6.18, 6.21, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times with decent weights.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-19, 02:10 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-19, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)

Foiled again by the devious Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2888 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3153 CNY
Error: 265 CNY (~43 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 467 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 506 USD
Error: 39 USD
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do." (unknown)