# Last edited on 2014-04-18 23:04:22 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 19[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-04-19, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2888 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 467 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-18-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-18-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-18-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-18-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-18-prediction-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was rather weak, (S = 0.0053, W = 0.565), but still usable, and almost right on top of the current trendline.  Therefore we used again a straight line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3187.6 and B = -100.0.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.19 CNY/USD. It was 6.18, 6.21, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-18, 03:42 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Today was my broken clock moment of glory, it seems:

Huobi's predicted price: 3001 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2983 CNY
Error: 18 CNY (~3 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 483 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 483 USD
[b]Error: 0 USD[/b]
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: 
  "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."
    -- Richard Feynman