# Last edited on 2014-04-17 21:02:10 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 18[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3001 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 483 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-17-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-17-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-17-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-17-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-17-prediction-legend.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0009, W = 0.982), but substantially below the previously assumed trendline.  It does not seem possible to fit the last three or four points into a plausible trendline. (A parabola might do, but it is hard to justify it in terms of fundamentals.) So we assumed trend break, and a new straight line trend defined by the last two points only; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3185 and B = -92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.21 CNY/USD. It was 6.21, 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last five Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 22:59 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull, again:

Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3093 CNY
Error: 105 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 498 USD
Error: 15 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "You don't even have a clue as to which clue you're missing." -- Miss Manners