# Last edited on 2014-04-16 19:53:01 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 17[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3198 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 513 USD

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-16-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-16-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-16-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-16-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-16-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0005, W = 0.995); Huobi's clients slept soundly after a hectic day.  The last three points are far from being aligned, so fitting a straight line to all three them seems unjustified, and using only the last two seems too risky.  Instead we assumed a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 3202.5, B = -283.56, and Q = 0.248832919 (which is almost, but not quite, the same as repeating the last value).

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 22:41 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull:

Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3185 CNY
Error: 160 CNY (~26 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 511 USD
Error: 18 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Satisfaction guaranteed, or twice your load back."  -- sign on septic tank truck