# Last edited on 2014-04-16 18:43:45 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 16[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3345 CNY
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 529 USD

([b]NOTE[/b]: This is the [i]Method's[/i] prediction, not [i]my[/i] prediction.)

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-15-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-15-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-15-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-15-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-15-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's data point was only passable (S = 0.0049, W = 0.619). With two points, we can try a straight-lin trend, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 2919, B = 213.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.32 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.38, 6.21, 6.24 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 23:11 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Foiled again by the devious Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2919 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3132 CNY
Error: 213 CNY (~34 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 469 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 495 USD
Error: 26 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]:
  "Si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,      
  sentendosi come Gesù nel tempio,   
  si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,       
  se non può più dare cattivo esempio." 
    --Fabrizio De Andrè, [i]Bocca di Rosa[/i]