# Last edited on 2014-04-15 01:53:00 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 15[/b]

A trivial prediction:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-04-15, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2919 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 469 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-14-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-14-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-14-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-14-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-14-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

This was an obvious break in the trend. We have a single data point for the next trend; and a mediocre one, since there was substantial volume in the three hourly intervals 18.00--20:59 (2020, 511, and 1710 BTC;  S = 0.0058, W = 0.515).  The only reasonable guess is the trivial one, "tomorrow will be like today" - namely 2919 CNY at Huobi.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.22 CNY/USD. It was 6.38 6.21, 6.24, 6.32 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-13, 23:11 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Foiled by the devious Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2575 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2919 CNY
Error: 344 CNY (~55 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 414 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 457 USD
Error: 43 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]:
  "Never underestimate the joy people derive from 
  hearing something they already know." -- Enrico Fermi