# Last edited on 2014-04-13 20:10:31 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 14[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-04-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2575 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 414 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-13-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-13-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-13-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-13-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-13-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Huobi's clients traded until late night, so the data point of Apr/13 UTC was very weak (S = 0.0125, W = 0.045), but was very close ([b]ahem![/b]) to the previous trend.  Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that the trend will hold for one more day still. Weighted least squares fitting to the points of Apr/07, 08, 09, 11, 12, and 13 (assuming that Apr/10 was an outlier) give practically the same line as before, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2797.46, B = -31.81.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.22 CNY/USD. It was 6.21, 6.24, 6.32 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-12, 22:32 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Not bad for Doomsday's Eve:

Huobi's predicted price: 2609 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2575 CNY
Error:  46 CNY (~7.40 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 417 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 413 USD
Error: 4 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]:
  "If the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a thumb."
    -- Peter Gutmann