# Last edited on 2014-04-12 19:27:04 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 13[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-04-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2609 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 417 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-12-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-12-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-12-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-12-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-12-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

The data point of Apr/12 UTC was a good one (S = 0.0029, W = 0.846), and right on top ([b]ahem![/b]) of the previous trend.  Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that trend will hold for one more day. Weighted least squares fitting to the points of Apr/07, 08, 09, 11, and 12 (assuming that Apr/10 was an outlier) give A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2796.66, B = -31.24.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.25 CNY/USD. It was 6.24, 6.32, 6.16 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-11, 22:50 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

[b]Ahem![/b]

Huobi's predicted price: 2634 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2643 CNY
Error:   9 CNY (~1.44 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 422 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 423 USD
Error: 1 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale
    returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." -- Mark Twain