# Last edited on 2014-04-11 19:49:00 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 12[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2634 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 422 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-11-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-11-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-11-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-11-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-11-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

The data point of Apr/10 UTC, although fairly good according to the Slumber Volume criterion (S = 0.0038, W = 0.754), was way off the previous trend.  However, the next point, of Apr/11, although rather weak (S = 0.0066, W = 0.414), was very close to that line.  Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume a straight line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the points of Apr/07--Apr/09 and Apr/11.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2798.22, B = -32.75.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.24 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last four Slumber Times; the jump may have been due to momentary failure of arbitrage, or adjustment to the official rate (6.21).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 22:00 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Needless to say, the prediction was totally ruined by the Huobi bank closure notice:

Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2448 CNY
Error: 269 CNY (~43 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 396 USD
Error: 45 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Like so many contemporary philosophers, he especially enjoyed giving
    helpful advice to people who were happier than he was." -- Tom Lehrer