# Last edited on 2014-04-09 18:53:41 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 10[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2717 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 441 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-09-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-09-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-09-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-09-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-09-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

This last Slumber data point was good (S = 0.0014, W = 0.963).  It was about 70 CNY below the preceding trend line, but, since the previous point was rather weak (W = 0.545), it still seems valid to use a straight line fitted by least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2791.80, B = -24.92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 03:24 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

A rather embarassing miss:

Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2734 CNY
Error: 74 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 444 USD
Error: 12 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts -- for support rather than illumination." --Andrew Lang