# Last edited on 2014-04-09 00:22:55 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 09[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2808 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 456 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-08-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

This last data point was rather weak (S = 0.0055, W = 0.545) but, with the previous one, allows us to assume a straight line trend A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2782, B = 13.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.15, 6.23 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 01:55 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)

Another easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2782 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2795 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 452 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 454 USD
Error: 2 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "A man with a new idea is a crank until he succeeds." --Mark Twain