# Last edited on 2014-04-07 22:48:44 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 08[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-04-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2782 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 452 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-07-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

This last data point was fair (S = 0.0035, W = 0.782) but totally off the trend followed by the four previous points. Obviously there was a break in the trend.  With a single data point, the best one can do is to use the banal prediction, "tomorrow will be the same as today".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.15, 6.23, 6.20 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-06, 23:00 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Foiled again:

Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2782 CNY
Error: 147 CNY (~24 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 452 USD
Error: 20 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." --P. K. Dick