# Last edited on 2014-04-06 19:58:33 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 07[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2929 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 472 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-06-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

This last data point was again good (S = 0.0030, W = 0.835), and almost aligned with the previous three points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to stick with a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last four Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2670.77, B = 64.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD (it was 6.23, 6.20, 6.13 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 23:41 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

This was again an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2860 CNY
Error: 6 CNY (~1 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 459 USD
Error: 7 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: If you lost money because you trusted my predictions, you made at least two big mistakes.