# Last edited on 2014-04-05 20:34:29 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 06[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2874 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 466 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-05-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-05-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-05-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-05-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-05-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]


This last data point was not too bad (S = 0.0038, W = 0.745), and almost aligned with the previous two points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to stick with a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last three Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2667.94, B = 68.82.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.17 CNY/USD (it was 6.20, 6.13, 5.96 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 02:41 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

This was an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2796 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2808 CNY
Error: 12 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 8 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: See the previous note.