# Last edited on 2014-04-04 23:37:47 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 05[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-04-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2796 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 461 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-04-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-04-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-04-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-04-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-04-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

We had two rather bad data points on Apr/01 (S = 0.009, W = 0.19) and Apr/02 (S = 0.0123, W = 0.05), and then two good ones on Apr/03 (S = 0.0025, W = 0.87) and Apr/04 (S = 0.0015, W = 0.96).  I therefore assumed a straight trend line defined by the last two Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2670, B = 63.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.06 CNY/USD (it was 6.13, 5.96, 6.06 at the last three Slumber Times, skipping the bad Apr/01 and Apr/02 points).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-02, 01:15 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

On that day the price was moving according to the trend, but then there was a steep crash starting at 12:00 UTC, so the prediction was awfully wrong:

Huobi's predicted price: 2963 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2648 CNY
Error: 315 CNY (~52 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 490 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
Error: 48 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: None.