# Last edited on 2014-04-01 22:11:00 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 2[/b]

April Fools day is not over yet, so making again a fool of myself:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-04-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2963 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 490 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-01-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Huobi's clients did not have an easy night, and this last Slumber Point was somewhat weak (S = 0.0091, W = 0.192).  Still, the Method says to use the straight trend line defined by the last two Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Mar/31 , A = 2759, B = 102.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.05 CNY/USD (it was 5.96, 6.06, 6.02, 6.08 at the last four Slumber Times, skipping the bad Mar/30 point).
 
[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 00:41 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2759 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2861 CNY
Error: 102 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 455 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 480 USD
Error: 25 USD 
 
[b]NOTE[/b]: If a circular is sent to the banks by PBoC, but no reporter is there to see it, does it make a crashing sound?