# Last edited on 2014-04-01 00:58:50 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 1[/b]

Just to make a fool of myself:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuuesday 2014-04-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2759 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 455 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-31-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-31-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-31-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-31-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-31-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

The last Slumber Point was quite good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.936) but the previous one was very bad (S = 0.0140, W = 0.020).  Therefore the only reasonable trendline is the constant function, namely "the next Slumber Price will be the same as the last one". 

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.10 CNY/USD (it was 6.06, 6.02, 6.08 at the last three Slumber Times, skipping the Mar/30 one).

[b]NOTE[/b]: Today is April Fools day.  Every day is Greater Fools day.