# Last edited on 2014-03-30 19:42:57 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Monday March 31[/b]

We interrupt the advanced TA gallery to inform that today's Slumber Point was very unreliable (S = 0.014, W = 0.017) and way off the previous trend, so the Chinese Slumber Method refuses to give a prediction, even under advanced interrogation techniques. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-30-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-30-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-30-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-30-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-30-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.06 CNY/USD (it was 6.02, 6.08, 6.03, 6.12 at the last four Slumber Times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-03-30, 00:41 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2987 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2819 CNY
Error: 168 CNY (~28 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 493 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 456 USD
Error: 37 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: The last two squares show that the method can predict tomorrow's price fairly accurately, it just can't predict tomorrow's date.