# Last edited on 2014-03-29 21:39:27 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday March 30[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-03-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2987 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 493 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-29-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-29-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-29-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-29-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-29-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Today's Slumber Point was fairly good (S = 0.0045, W = 0.668) and the two previous one are not too bad.  These three points are obviously not in a straight line. The best fit seems to be a decaying shifted exponential, namely A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 27, and Q is sufficiently small. Choosing Q = 0.100 gives A = 2987.36 and B = 136.38 by least squares. 

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.06 CNY/USD (it was 6.02, 6.08, 6.03, 6.12 at the last four Slumber Times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-28, 22:30 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Satuday 2014-03-29, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2858 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2998 CNY
Error: 140 CNY (~23 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 470 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 498 USD
Error: 28 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Why did the chicken cross the trend line?