# Last edited on 2014-03-26 20:46:29 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday March 27[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-03-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3628 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 593 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-26-prediction-explanation.txt]Plot legend[/url]

Once more, Huobi saw relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~728 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC), but not as much as yesterday. Today's data point had low but non-negligible weight (S = 9.349, W = 0.174).  Since the last four data points (Mar/23--26) are fairly aligned, in spite of their low weight, I assumed a straight-line trend fitted to then by weighted least squares: A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3468.99, B = 39.69 (which is just a tad lower than the one used yesterday.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.12 CNY/USD (it was 6.12, 6.10, 6.11, 6.13 at the last four Slumber Times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-26, 00:10 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3596 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3588 CNY
Error: 8 CNY (~1.31 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 589 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 584 USD
Error: 5 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: I wish to thank all the sellers who practically threw away thousands of precious bitcoins and all the buyers who wasted millions of dollars just to fullfill my prediction above.