# Last edited on 2014-03-25 21:09:18 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday March 26[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-03-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3596 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 589 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The olive-gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight W, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Once more, Huobi saw relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~1020 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC), possibly due to arbitrage. Today's data point too has nearly zero weight (S = 17.5, W = 0.002).  Even though the last two data points are nearly useless I tentatively assumed a straight-line trend fitted to the last three ones by weighted least squares:  A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3468.97, B = 42.42.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.11 CNY/USD (it was 6.10, 6.11, 6.13, 6.20 at the last four Slumber Times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-03-25, 04:15 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3525 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3561 CNY
Error: 36 CNY (~6 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 576 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 583 USD
Error: 7 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Even a broken clock gets the correct time twice a day. That's not fair.