# Last edited on 2014-03-25 01:12:08 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday March 25[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-03-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3525 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 576 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The olive-gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight W, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Huobi trade on Monday was very low during the day; in that period the price fell ~90 CNY but then recovered to its previous value, ~3460 CNY. During the night the price increased by ~100 CNY, with relatively high volume at the Slumber Time (~1260 BTC/h, instead of the usual 50-200 BTC).  Presumably the price hike began outside China and was carried to Huobi by arbitrage, without significant resistance.  The extra volume during the late night hours may have been entirely arbitrage.  

Anyway, because of that heavy nightly traffic, today's data point has nearly zero weight (S = 17.0, W = 0.003).  Following the Method strictly, the trend now should be undefined and it would be better not to make any prediction.  To avoid disappointing the Method's fans, I tentatively assumed a break before Sunday's data point, and a new straight-line trend defined by the las two data points:  A + B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 23, A = 3469, B = 28.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.12 CNY/USD (it was 6.09, 6.20, 6.15, 6.11 at the last four Slumber Times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-03-24, 05:37 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3316 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3497 CNY
Error: 181 CNY (~29 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 541 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 572 USD
Error: 31 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Aw, shucks!