# Last edited on 2014-03-22 20:42:14 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday March 23[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-03-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3386 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 551 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The trend assumed for the above prediction is the shifted exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 2685.90, B = 1061.64, Q = 0.901.  The values of A and B were fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--22.  (A straight line would have fit almost as well, but shifted exponentials are more "physically" plausible than straight lines or pure exponentials.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD (it was 6.09 yesterday, 6.20 today).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 21:56 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3477 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3462 CNY
Error: 15 CNY (~2.50 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 558 USD
Error: 8 USD 

The larger error in the Bitstamp prediction could be due to a value of R (6.09) that was too low. 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Still looking for icons that are more exciting than dinosaurs but still within the limits of academic decorum.