# Last edited on 2014-03-20 21:01:09 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday March 21[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3630 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 591 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=350]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Specifically, the trend used is a straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 16, A = 3818.88, B = -37.70, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/16--20.  (The fit was not very good, so it was tempting to assume a trend break between Mar/18 and Mar/19.  But let's wait for the next data point before deciding that.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which on Mar/19 seems to have jumped from ~6.06 to ~6.14 CNY/USD.

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-19, 22:24 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20.5 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3725 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3646 CNY
Error: 79 CNY (~13 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 615 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 591 USD
Error: 24 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-dez-reais.jpg][img width=80]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-20-dez-reais.jpg[/img][/url]