# Last edited on 2014-03-19 02:26:17 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Dinosaur Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Mar/19[/b]

(It already looks like this prediction will be wrong by a mile, but anyway...)

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-03-19, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3699 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 610 USD. 

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-18-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=400]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-18-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. The size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is the mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from the ratio S.  The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the above prediction.

The trend used is a shifted exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 16, A = 3681.68, B = 160.32, Q = 0.476.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which these days seems to be around 6.06 CNY/USD.

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-03-17, 06:05 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3674 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3718 CNY
Error: 44 CNY (~7 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 606 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 614 USD
Error: 8 USD 

[b]NOTE 1[/b]: Read Note 2.

[b]NOTE 2[/b]: Ignore Note 1.

[b]NOTE 3[/b]: Aren't you glad that Note 2 did not tell you to re-read Note 1?