# Last edited on 2014-03-18 03:03:02 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Dinosaur Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/18[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-03-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3674 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 606 USD.

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-17-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-17-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The light blue-gray squares are the older price predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. The size of the Albertosaurus under each point indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub], where V[sub]h[/sub] is the mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V[sub]d[/sub] is the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from the ratio S.  The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the above prediction.

This diagram is a step towards "scientificating" the Chinese Slumber Method.  Instead of a binary classification of the Slumber Points into True (valid, used) and False (invalid, discarded), each point now gets assigned a numeric weight (shown above by the point's size) which is a decreasing function of the night-time activity ratio S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub]. This weight is used for fitting each trend (by weighted least squares) and to choose breaks in the trends.  However the choice of the breaks and part of the fitting are still done by eyeballing. 

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which these days seems to be around 6.06 CNY/USD.

[b]NOTE[/b]: There is no NOTE this time. I may provide two NOTES next time.