# Last edited on 2014-03-14 19:38:01 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Arbitrary Icon Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Saturday Mar/15[/b]

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-14-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-14-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Ruby (orange) if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is a Lignite (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the True Points.

Today (Mar/14) seems to be a Lignite (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] ~ 849/90000 = 0.00943 > 0.005) and therefore should be ignored.  Since the previous Ruby was isolated and did not seem to continue some earlier trend, there is no point in giving a prediction today.  Huobi's traders will have to figure out the price by themselves.

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-14-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-14-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The squares are previous predictions.  The dots and lines are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points and trends scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-14, 07:38 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3918 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3821 CNY
Error: 97 CNY (~16 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 645 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 631 USD
Error: 14 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Admittedly minerals are not as exciting as dinosaurs.  For the next prediction I am considering tubers, staple guns, protozoa, gaskets, subatomic particles, or something like that.