# Last edited on 2014-03-14 04:27:03 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday Mar/14[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3918 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 645 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-13-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-13-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is True (orange) if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is False (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the True Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction.

Today (Mar/13) was a True Point (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 124/65400 = 0.00190 < 0.005) and therefore valid.  Since this point is quite far from the previous trend,and the previous point (Mar/11) was False, there is no clear trend yet, and it would be wiser to refrain from making any prediction.  The one given above is a rather arbitrary guess, just a repeat of today's price.  (I suspect that [b]it will be quite wrong[/b] since a mini-crash is in progress right now.  But, what the heck...)

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-13-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-13-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, lines, and magenta squares are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

(The Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio seems to have returned to R = 6.12 since Mar/11.  This new value of R was used for the Bitstamp prediction for Fri Mar/14, but prior predictions were plotted as posted.)

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 21:28 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3783 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3918 CNY
Error: 135 CNY (~22 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 631 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 645 USD
Error: 14 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: No dinosaurs today, they cannot hold up to the competition.  Time to retreat and rethink the marketing strategy.