# Last edited on 2014-03-12 18:14:17 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday Mar/13[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-03-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3783 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 631 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-12-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-12-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction. The [i]Helix pomatia[/i] is a graphical indication of market sentiment as deduced from the contents of this thread.

By the arbitrary criterion I have been using, today seems to be an Albertosaurus (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 474/80000 = 0.00592 > 0.005) and therefore an invalid data point.  Therefore, the prediction used the same trend used last time, a shifted exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-4), where d is the day of the month, Q = 0.700, A = 3772.33, B = 268.94.

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-12-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-12-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and magenta squares are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 since Mar/04, and 6.12 for all other dates).

(The Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio seems to have returned to R = 6.12 in the last few days, but I am sticking to 6.0 for now.)

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Since today was an Albertosaurus, the prediction for today is officially void.  But, for the curious:

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 05:26 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3788 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3876 CNY
Error: 88 CNY (~14 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 631 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 643 USD
Error: 12 USD 

(Of course this is not very impressive since the prediction was posted only 14 hours ahead of the target time.)

[b]NOTE[/b]: Dinosaurs became extinct.  Is that bullish or bearish?