# Last edited on 2014-03-12 02:22:12 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Mar/12[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-03-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3788 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 631 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-11-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-11-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue squares are the last bullish and bearish predictions (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction. The [i]Helix pomatia[/i] is a graphical indication of market sentiment as deduced from the contents of this thread.

By the arbitrary criterion I have been using, today was defintely a Glyptodon (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 195/55000 = 0.00354 < 0.005) and therefore a valid data point.  The trend that included it and seemed most plausible was a shifted exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-4), where d is the day of the month, fitted to the five Glyptodons Mar/04--06,09,11.  It seemed reasonable to exclude the Glyptodon of Mar/08, since its V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] (4.27) was near the threshold and it seemed to lie outside any trend.  The ratio Q was set to 0.700, giving A = 3772.33, B = 268.94).

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-11-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-11-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and magenta squares are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 since Mar/04, and 6.12 for all other dates).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-03-11, 01:31 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3802 CNY
Huobi's predicted price for bulls: 4073 CNY
Error: 271 CNY (~45 USD)
Huobi's predicted price for bears: 3597 CNY
Errors: 205 CNY (~34 USD)

Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Bitstamp's predicted price for bulls: 679 USD
Error: 56 USD 
Bitstamp's predicted price for bears: 600 USD
Error: 23 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Huobi's CEO denied allegations of fake trade volume, but said nothing about fake Glyptodons.