# Last edited on 2014-03-10 22:30:11 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/11[/b]

Two predictions for today:

[b]Predictions valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-03-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)

[b]Huobi's predicted price for bulls:[/b] 4073 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted pricefor bulls:[/b] 679 USD.

[b]Huobi's predicted price for bears:[/b] 3597 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price for bears:[/b] 600 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-10-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-10-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current predictions are the rightmost magenta squares.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange lines are the trends that were assumed for the predictions. The Germanodactyl and Ophtalmosaurus indicate which direction is up and which is down, respectively.

By the arbitrary criterion I have been using, today was defintely an Albertosaurus (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 682/95100 = 0.00717 > 0.005).  However, volume in the preceding hour 18:00--18:59 (02:00--02:59) was only 274 BTC, so it should have been a Glyptodon. 

Anyway, since by the rules today's point is not a valid datum, we again have no clear trend.  In order to fill what would otherwise be a huge blank space on the forum's page, I considered two straight-line trends p(d) = A+B*(d-d0), where d is the day of the month: the least-squares line fitted to the last five Glyptodons (Mar/04--06,08--09; A = 4022.56, B = -60.63, d0 = 4), and the traight line through the last two (Mar/08--09; A = 3668, B = +135, d0 = 8).

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-10-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-10-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and magenta squares are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 since Mar/04, and 6.12 for all other dates).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Since today was an Albertosaurus, the prediction is officially void.  But, just for the curious:

Prediction was posted on: Monday 2014-03-10, 01:47 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3938 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3784 CNY
Error: 154 CNY (~26 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 656 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 619 USD
Error: 37 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: These predictions are guaranteed to be correct only in some parallel universes.  Be sure you choose the right one.